Message

PredictionsInsider

A potential insider signal: a fresh, low-activity account taking an unusually large position in a single market. Published to the predictions-insiders Kafka topic each time insider detection runs; an existing signal is re-published when its underlying position changes. A position is flagged when all of the following hold:

- its cost basis is at least $1,000, at an average entry price of at
  most $0.90 per share, and its realized loss is no worse than -$100
- the account holds fewer than 5 distinct positions
- the account's first observed trade was fewer than 20 days ago

fields17 topicpredictions-insiders

▶Proto definition.proto

message PredictionsInsider {
  int64 user_id = 1;
  int64 asset_id = 2;
  int64 question_id = 3;
  int32 n_positions = 4;
  int32 days_since_first_trade = 5;
  Decimal total_invested_usd = 6;
  Decimal avg_price = 7;
  Decimal mean_invested_usd = 8;
  Decimal std_invested_usd = 9;
  Decimal invested_zscore = 10;
  Category category = 11;
  optional string username = 12;
  optional string question = 13;
  optional string outcome_label = 14;
  optional string user_address = 15;
  optional string token_id = 16;
  Decimal realized_pnl = 17;
}

Fields

user_id int64 1

Internal numeric id of the flagged user's wallet. Same id space as PredictionsTrade.maker_id/taker_id and PredictionsPosition.user_id.

asset_id int64 2

Internal numeric id of the outcome token the position is in. Same id space as PredictionsTrade.asset_id and PredictionsPosition.asset_id.

question_id int64 3

Internal numeric id of the market (question) the token belongs to.

n_positions int32 4

Number of distinct outcome tokens the user holds positions in, across all markets. Always fewer than 5 by construction.

days_since_first_trade int32 5

Days since the user's first observed trade. Always fewer than 20 by construction.

total_invested_usd Decimal 6

USDC the user invested in this token (cost basis of the position).

avg_price Decimal 7

User's average entry price per share, in USDC (between 0 and 1).

mean_invested_usd Decimal 8

Mean invested USDC across all positions held in this token — the market baseline the user is compared against.

std_invested_usd Decimal 9

Population standard deviation of invested USDC across all positions held in this token.

invested_zscore Decimal 10

How unusual the position size is versus the market baseline: (total_invested_usd - mean_invested_usd) / std_invested_usd, or 0 when std_invested_usd is 0. Values >= 2.0 are treated as strong insider signals.

category Category 11

Category of the market's question.

username string optional 12

Polymarket username of the user, when known.

question string optional 13

Text of the market's question (e.g. "Will X win the election?"), when known.

outcome_label string optional 14

Label of the outcome the position is on (e.g. "Yes"), when known.

user_address string optional 15

User wallet address (0x-prefixed hex), when known.

token_id string optional 16

Polymarket CTF (ERC-1155) token id of the outcome token, as a decimal string. Matches PredictionsTrade.asset_address and PredictionsPosition.asset_address.

realized_pnl Decimal 17

User's realized profit or loss on this token so far, in USDC.